: Assumptions include the preservation of only currently implemented policies, leading to a failure to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
In financial and climate modeling, a (or "House World") scenario describes a future where global climate policy efforts are insufficient to halt significant warming, typically resulting in temperature increases of house_world
: High emissions lead to irreversible biophysical changes, including drastic sea-level rise and a non-linear increase in extreme weather events. : Assumptions include the preservation of only currently
The NGFS and European Central Bank (ECB) categorize this as the most severe physical risk pathway. or more by 2100
or more by 2100. This report outlines the core characteristics, economic impacts, and limitations of this trajectory as defined by organizations like the . Core Scenario Characteristics
: Because aggressive decarbonization is not attempted, the immediate costs of shifting to a green economy (e.g., carbon taxes, early asset retirement) are negligible.